Analysis: Macedonian truce prospects

It is the first time a deal has been signed by both sides

By south east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

For the first time since fighting erupted in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia at the end of February, a ceasefire deal that applies to the whole country has been signed both by the Macedonian authorities and by the ethnic Albanian guerrillas, known as the National Liberation Army (NLA).

Talks between ethnic Albanian and Macedonian politicians on an international peace plan have also got under way.

Previously, each side had declared a number of unilateral ceasefires - and then proceeded to violate them whenever it seemed possible that a military advantage could be gained.

Of course it is not the end of the crisis, but it will create peaceful conditions for the political part

National Security Adviser Nikola Dimitrov

Under the agreement - signed by chief of staff General Pande Petrovski and Police General Risto Galevski for the Skopje authorities, and by the ethnic Albanian fighters' political representative, Ali Ahmeti, on behalf of the NLA - all fighting ceased from midnight local time (2200 GMT) on Thursday 5 July.

There were no direct negotiations between the two sides as the Macedonian authorities are not prepared to talk to those they describe as "terrorists".

The deal was brokered by Nato mediators and it was then signed separately by the two adversaries.

Mr Trajkovski originally proposed a more far-reaching agreement

The very fact that a third party has helped mediate the deal gives it greater credibility.

The more so since Nato has already agreed to help oversee the disarmament of the NLA - which would be part of a more far-reaching agreement that was originally put forward by the Macedonian President, Boris Trajkovski.

That proposal includes a partial amnesty for the ethnic Albanian fighters and a political settlement to meet the Albanian community's demands for more extensive collective rights.

There is no question of Nato forcibly taking arms away from Albanians

Nato spokesman Yves Brodeur

Nato Secretary General George Robertson has said the deployment of a planned 3,000-strong Nato contingent, entrusted with the task of overseeing the disarmament of the NLA, will only take place once there is a "durable ceasefire".

And a Nato spokesman in Brussels, Yves Brodeur, has outlined once again the basis on which Nato forces will carry out their disarmament of ethnic Albanian guerrillas.

"All along, since the beginning, it was clearly established by Nato and clearly understood by everyone that this has got to be done on a voluntary basis, so there is no question of Nato forcibly taking arms away from Albanians," he said. "They will have to agree and surrender their weapons voluntarily."

The Nato contingent will be ready to move into Macedonia a week after a political decision is reached.

What now?

If the ceasefire does hold, it is only the starting point along a path leading towards resolving not just the current conflict but also the history of inter-ethnic hostility between majority Macedonians and the ethnic Albanians.

It is not clear whether all rebel commanders will observe the truce

There is a long list of ethnic Albanian demands - and an equally long list of Macedonian fears as to whether those demands, once granted, might lead to the break-up of Macedonia.

That is why the negotiations over an international peace plan known as the Draft Framework Document are likely to be long and difficult.

The proposed deal envisages Macedonia's future as a unitary country with a multi-ethnic character.

In other words, it rejects the idea of a federal system or of autonomy for the western and north-western parts of the country where most of Macedonia's sizeable Albanian community live.

At the same time the document seeks to meet many of the ethnic Albanians' demands for full equality - both in constitutional provisions and in practice.

• It calls for bilingual education within a uniform curriculum, and for a mix of state and private universities which should decide their language priorities. The ethnic Albanians' demand for a state-financed Albanian-language university is left for further discussions.

• It also calls for greater use of Albanian language in official business.

• The proposal also calls for greater powers for local authorities, as well as new local election laws, the redrawing of municipal boundaries after the census that is planned for the end of this year, and for Albanian municipalities to be able to display their own emblems, along with Macedonia's state flag.

• Employment in public administration, in general, should reflect the ethnic balance across the country. Ethnic Albanians argue that in spite of accounting for at least a quarter of the population, their access to public service jobs remains limited.

• On constitutional change, the document suggests that any amendments would need the approval of the Albanian minority.

• But it does not go along with ethnic Albanian demands that their community should have an automatic veto on all legislation they believe affects their interests.

The document - as its name makes it clear - is simply a framework for more detailed discussions at a later date on constitutional and legislative changes - as well as putting in place confidence-boosting measures.

However, it has already attracted serious criticism from all the ethnic Albanian leaders, with one of them, Arben Xhaferi, saying that this offer could not stop the war.

By contrast, the Macedonian side has been more welcoming and its main objections have centred on the use of Albanian as an official language.

But there is a growing awareness on both sides that there is little time left to reach a deal. The alternative might be a return to much more serious fighting.