Cubans consider the succession

Rumours have been circulating that Castro may be ill

By Daniel Schweimler in Havana

When the President of Cuba, Fidel Castro, fainted two weeks ago, it was only for a few seconds.

He had been speaking for two hours under the fierce Caribbean sun and he is nearly 75 years old.

No-one really knows how strong the revolution would be without Fidel at its head

It could have happened to anybody.

But Fidel Castro is not just anybody.

In his 42 years in power he had never before shown signs of physical weakness.

Hard evidence

Rumours have been circulating for some years that he may be ill.

Mr Roque stepped in to calm the crowd when Castro fainted

But they are more the product of wishful thinking by his enemies in the United States.

The president has tended to respond to them by appearing in public soon afterwards to be fitter and more robust than before.

However this time it is different.

The fainting was evidence, live on Cuban television, that all might not be well.

President Castro appeared at another open-air rally last weekend.

Again it was very hot, again he was wearing his customary olive green uniform and no hat.

But this time he spoke for less than 10 minutes - unusual for a man who thinks nothing of talking for two, three or even seven hours.

Some say he was just being prudent, following the advice of his doctors.

Cubans watch closely

But Cubans, both those on the island and the million or so exiles in the United States, are now watching the veteran leader very closely.

And in Cuba, where there is no opposition media, rumours and speculation about what the future may hold have been running wild.

Mr Alarcon: One possible candidate

Most Cubans have never known anyone other than President Castro as their leader and find it difficult to imagine life after Fidel.

Many wept openly in the streets when he fainted. Others quietly rubbed their hands in expectation of an imminent end to what they see as a communist dictatorship.

Contingency plans for President Castro's death are in place in both Cuba and Miami.

Will thousands of Cubans take the opportunity to flee to Miami or will Cuban exiles head in the opposite direction to claim property they say was taken from them by the Cuban revolution?

Possible successors

Officially, Fidel's younger brother, Raul, is the next in line.

The head of the armed forces has stood loyally by his brother's side since the early days of the revolution. He is more of an ideologue and lacks Fidel's charisma and common touch.

Many pundits see him as a stop-gap to keep order and maintain the gains of the revolution - the Cuban health and education systems of which the country is extremely proud.

Mr Lage: Another name mentioned

Other names being mentioned are those of Vice President Carlos Lage and the head of the National Assembly, Ricardo Alarcon.

Another name in the ring is the man who stepped in to calm the crowd when the president fainted was the young Foreign Minister, Felipe Perez Roque, who has been Fidel's trusted assistant for many years and knows the president as well as anyone.

The future of Cuba after Fidel Castro is uncertain because the country's 11 million people have grown accustomed to not openly expressing their views.

And there are few outlets when they do.

So no-one really knows just how much support the Castro government has and, more importantly, how strong the revolution would be without Fidel at its head.