Analysis: Montenegro's decision-day looms

Post-election celebrations - but public opinion was split

By South-east Europe analyst
Gabriel Partos

A government crisis in Montenegro is coming to an end, after parliamentary elections left President Milo Djukanovic's party and its allies short of an overall majority.

The president's Democratic Party of Socialists has signed a deal with the fiercely pro-independence Liberals, apparently accelerating moves towards Montenegro's independence.

But the acceleration may worry the president, who has adopted a more cautious approach.

Djukanovic: Faster timetable now on the table

The parliamentary elections - which were something of an undeclared referendum on independence - produced a somewhat ambiguous response, when the president's coalition failed to secure a clear majority.

Under the new arrangement with the Liberals, once the parliament is fully constituted - and that should take no more than a few days - the clock set for an independence vote will start ticking.

Not long ago, President Djukanovic was keen to play down the importance of setting a precise date for the referendum.

"The question of whether a referendum will be held by the end of this year or in the first part of next year will be a matter of a very subtle political decision which will be made in the next few months," he said, speaking in London.

If the federal government were to collapse over this - or any other issue - Montenegro's moves towards independence could accelerate once more

"This will depend on the intensity of our dialogue with Serbia. We would like this dialogue to be constructive, and we would like in a short period to resolve all the questions which stand in the way in our relations."

Although Mr Djukanovic has not been pressured into agreeing to a referendum date, the Liberals have at least secured a timetable for the process.

A referendum law is to be drawn up within two months of the new parliament being fully constituted. And that is to be followed by a referendum within a further six months.

Yugoslav ties remain strong for many voters

Under this schedule, a vote on restoring Montenegro's pre-1918 independence is due by early January.

It is perhaps a little too early for Mr Djukanovic, whose earlier hope for holding a referendum by the end of June this year has been derailed by last month's inconclusive election results, and who now favours caution.

Under pressure from a divided electorate - and an international community worried about the impact of Montenegrin independence - President Djukanovic is eager not to destabilise his country by rushing into a referendum.

He is prepared to accommodate some of the requirements of the pro-federation parties in the planned new referendum law - a move that could require, for example, a turn-out of over 50%.

Pro-Yugoslav

In the meantime, though, Montenegrin politics are likely to remain in turmoil - not least because the main pro-federation group, Predrag Bulatovic's Socialist People's Party, has found itself at odds with some of its Serbian partners in the Yugoslav Government.

Mr Bulatovic's party is opposed to the extradition of suspected war criminals to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

If the federal government were to collapse over this - or any other issue - Montenegro's moves towards independence could accelerate once more.