Analysis: Nato's eastern expansion

Nato may soon open up to as many as 10 new member states

As Nato foreign ministers meet in a former Warsaw Pact country - Hungary - Oana Lungescu examines the implications of eastern European countries joining the euro-Atlantic alliance.

Nato leaders are avoiding naming any countries as future members of the alliance, but the location of their meetings suggests that the alliance has started to consider how much further to shift its borders.

This is the first time that the foreign ministers are holding their traditional spring reunion in a former Warsaw Pact country, two years after Hungary, Poland and the Czech republic joined Nato.

Applicants

In another first, the parallel meeting of parliamentarians from the 19 member countries and 10 hopefuls is taking place on the territory of the former Soviet Union - in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius.

Any invitations to join will be launched in November 2002 at a Nato summit in Prague - again, the first such summit in a central European member state. But the actual decision will be taken much earlier.

Russia's President Putin has condemned Nato expansion

Earlier this month, leaders of the 10 former communist countries hoping to join the alliance (nine official candidates plus Croatia) gathered in the Slovak capital Bratislava to hear a personal message of support sent by US President George W Bush.

Nato, he said, must be opened to all of Europe's democracies ready and able to meet Nato's obligations.

Mr Bush is expected to repeat that commitment when he travels to Europe next month for meetings with both Nato and EU leaders.

'Slo-Slo' option

His trip includes a stop-over in Slovenia. Slovenia and Slovakia - which are both small, relatively well off and would ensure the territorial continuity of the alliance - are generally seen as the best-placed contenders for the next wave of enlargement.

This so-called "Slo-Slo" option, however, is too slow and too minimal for some.

Romania and Bulgaria which both played an important role supporting Nato during the bombing of Yugoslavia are also in the running.

France in particular supports Romania, but its fragile economy may deter most other Nato members from doing the same.

So the main question appears to be - will Nato invite one or more Baltic states to join?

Russia has made its opposition to such a move abundantly clear, including at the Bratislava meeting, where it called any further Nato enlargement "a grave mistake".

US role 'crucial'

But, as President Bush insisted in his message to the same meeting, no part of Europe should be excluded because of its history and geography. Or, as a Nato official put it, we certainly don't accept that there is a red line concerning enlargement towards the Baltics.

Nato troops have heavy commitments in Europe

Lithuania, which has the smallest Russian community of all the Baltic states and enjoys better relations with Moscow than its neighbours, has the support of Poland and Denmark.

Germany is believed to oppose it in order not to antagonise Russia and also for financial considerations.

The American position will be, as ever, crucial.

Lithuanian emigres in the US supported George W Bush in the presidential campaign and are now expecting a reward.

Mr Bush may first want to canvas the opinion of US senators, especially after the shift towards the Democrats in the Senate.

Bush hint

Before a decision on Nato enlargement is taken, the president needs to notify the Senate, which has in turn to ratify the entry of new members by a two-thirds majority.

US diplomats say that it may be too early to talk about who will join, but Nato is now starting to take a hard look at how well each candidate country has done in its military, security and economic preparations.

President Bush may give a first hint of where he stands when he meets his colleagues in Brussels on 13 June.

One scenario under consideration is to invite a few countries next year in Prague and give the others a clearer timetable provided they fulfil a set of conditions.

But, as one Nato official said, the zero option is highly unlikely. If no one is invited, he said, that would be a political disaster for Nato.