Putin's cunning plan

Boris Gryzlov has been rewarded for unswerving loyalty

By Russian Affairs Analyst Stephen Dalziel

The reshuffle of the Russian Government announced by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday brings few new faces into the cabinet.

But the changes made could have far-reaching consequences for the formation of Russian - and Mr Putin's own - policies.

The timing of Mr Putin's reshuffle seems to have been carefully planned.

The Russian president seems to have performed a careful balancing act between ensuring that his people are in crucial positions, and not causing offence to potentially powerful rivals

It came two days after the Russian president marked his first year since being elected.

And, according to some sources in Moscow, part of the deal which Mr Putin made with his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, when Mr Yeltsin stepped down on New Year's Eve 1999, was that he would not make any government changes during his first year.

The Russian president seems to have performed a careful balancing act between ensuring that his people are in crucial positions, and not causing offence to potentially powerful rivals.

Although he has removed Marshal Igor Sergeyev from the post of defence minister, he has made him a presidential aide, responsible for strategic military matters.

Defence Minister Ivanov: Armed forces review now expected to proceed

This is a cunning move. Marshal Sergeyev had been involved in a long-running - and at times, surprisingly public - dispute with the Chief of the General Staff, General Anatoly Kvashnin, about the future structure of the armed forces.

General Kvashnin is in favour of smaller nuclear forces, and better trained and equipped conventional forces. Marshal Sergeyev had shown that his main concern still lay in strategic missile forces, which he used to head.

General Kvashnin will, presumably, now be able to push ahead with his plans, working closely with the new Defence Minister, Sergei Ivanov.

Secret police colleague

But Marshal Sergeyev still has Mr Putin's ear on strategic matters.

Mr Ivanov's appointment to the Defence Ministry seems to underline Mr Putin's determination to carry out a serious reform of the armed forces.

A former colleague of Mr Putin's in the Soviet secret police, the KGB, Mr Ivanov is probably the man closest to the Russian president, both personally and in terms of his views.

In the Interior Ministry, too, Mr Putin has succeeded in bringing about a change which should satisfy both the outgoing minister and his replacement

Furthermore, by appointing a woman, Lyubov Kudelina, as one of Mr Ivanov's deputies, Mr Putin is indicating his seriousness about wanting to "demilitarise" Russian politics. No woman has ever held such a senior post in the Soviet or Russian defence ministries.

The Interior Ministry, which has sufficient troops under its control to constitute a separate army, is another of Russia's key ministries.

Here, too, Mr Putin has succeeded in bringing about a change which should satisfy both the outgoing minister and his replacement.

Vladimir Rushailo moves to the position of Secretary of the Security Council, vacated by Mr Ivanov.

Lyubov Kudelina: Her appointment is a first in Russian defence

Although this is not a government post, it is one of the key positions in the Russian power structure. The Security Council is an unelected body, and is answerable only to the President.

The new Interior Minister, Boris Gryzlov, is rewarded for his unswerving loyalty to Mr Putin.

Until now, Mr Gryzlov has headed the Unity faction in the lower house of the Russian parliament, the State Duma.

Other changes

This political grouping was formed shortly before the parliamentary elections in 1999, and its strong showing in the elections and support for Mr Putin may well have been a factor which encouraged Mr Yeltsin to step down in favour of Mr Putin.

The Russian president has said that other changes will be made to the cabinet.

It is unlikely, though, that any will be as significant as those announced on Wednesday.

If that is so, then it will be a major show of confidence in the Prime Minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, who has so far defied all rumours of his impending removal.