Blair should hold his nerve

Tony Blair must concentrate on the long term and stick to the plan - which means going for a 3 May election, says Joy Johnson

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By Joy Johnson

The mistakes of the past are burnt into new Labour thinking. One of the first lessons taught to every Millbank strategist is that past Labour governments have spent first and then fought an election at the height of a political and economic crisis, usually caused by enforced budgetary retrenchment.

Joy Johnson

Joy Johnson has seen politics from both sides: as a journalist and then, from 1995 to 1996, as Labour's director of communications. She resigned amid reports of disagreements with Peter Mandelson

It was while working with Mandelson that she coined the term 'You can't win with spin'

This Labour administration was going to be different. Save for the first two years and spend later. Go for the long term and for the first time in history guarantee a second, and even a third, term, runs the argument.

It was a carefully constructed strategic plan with an election date pencilled in for 3 May 2001.

First step: accept the last Conservative government's spending plans for two years thereby demonstrating prudence.

Second: give independence to the Bank of England and show that this Labour government would not play fast and loose with monetary policy.

Extra time for campaigning is the last thing Tony Blair needs

And third: in the third year, have a comprehensive spending review that would lay out priorities for public services particularly in health and education.

These steps would change the nature of debate from a Conservative tax-cutting agenda to a Labour agenda that has improving public service at its core.

Tactics have taken over

Everything was on track. The chancellor had built up his war chest so that crises, if they happened (and they did, the fuel tax mayhem being one example), and mistakes (the 75p rise for pensioners being the greatest) could be resolved before an election.

As with all grand strategic plans, events derail them and tactics take over.

On Monday or Tuesday of next week the prime minister has to stand up and announce an election.

In my view he should stick with the strategy. Call it for 3 May - or at the very latest 7 June, although there would be very little to actually gain for having those extra few weeks except more campaigning time. And extra time for campaigning is the last thing he needs.

Eventually foot-and-mouth will be eradicated, but the problems with the tourism industry will take much longer.

Feel-bad factor alarm

Images of burning cattle and pits full of dead sheep will be no more. Instead the stories will be about hotels with vacancy signs and the share prices of industries related to the tourism industry going down.

Despite his Christian sensitivities, Tony Blair should ignore the bishops urging delay and go for it

This summer's iconic image? No queues at the Tower of London. Lonely clouds (but no one else) traversing the Lake District.

At a conference in Dallas last week, CNN News, the supplier of headlines without any context (the get-to-the-point news service), told its viewers that anyone who had a trip booked to the UK could cancel now without penalties.

BSE, we were told, had killed 100 people in Europe. America had not had a single death. In the very next breath the voice-over informed us that now Britain was struck down by foot-and-mouth disease and whole areas of the country were closed down.

The implication was clear. Americans - always nervous travellers outside of their continent at the best of times - should stay at home.

The feel-good factor has gone to a feeling-gloomy factor. Now the distinct possibility is that there will be a feel-bad factor made much worse by the economic chill making its way over from America.

Even if there is no real economic danger, stories of downturns in the US do not bode well for an election delayed until the autumn.

Time to heed the pollsters

Despite his Christian sensitivities, Tony Blair should ignore the bishops (and the burning flocks) urging delay and go for it. This time he should listen to the opinion pollsters; the gap is still good and William Hague is still unpopular.

Long-term perceptions among the electorate on the state of the economy are, however, not good.

Mr Blair should not lose his nerve. Change the nature of the campaign by all means. Be more prime ministerial and less of a campaigner. But the message remains: concentrate on the long term and stick to the plan.

And next term bring in fixed-term parliaments. It is much easier to defend a decision to fight an election during a crisis when it is a constitutional requirement to do so.

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Joy Johnson is strategic communications director at GPC International