Uncertainty as election preparations start

Disease crisis may eclipse General Election plans

by BBC Northern Ireland political editor Stephen Grimason

At the start of last week, Tony Blair seemed determined to forge ahead with his plans for a 3 May general election, regardless of the foot-and-mouth epidemic.

Now, with a predicted 4,000 cases in Britain by June, the noises coming from Downing Street are less forthright.

Mr Blair's spokesman talked of a very, very serious problem in relation to what was going on in the countryside.

We'll know soon enough. In an unguarded moment in front of a microphone in Stockholm, the prime minister said he had only 10 days to make a decision if 3 May was to be polling day.

There are implications for the peace process whatever he does.

The recent talks at Hillsborough held out the prospect of movement after the election, particularly on policing, but if Mr Blair does not go to the country until the autumn, will there be any serious shift in positions before the summer and Drumcree?

Arms prospects

General de Chastelain has issued another report welcoming re-engagement with the IRA representative and saying he believes this to be in good faith.

Speaking in Dublin last Friday, he said the arms commission was now pressing the IRA to explain exactly what it meant when it said it will put weapons "verifiably beyond use".

Unionists however, are not interested in words - they want deeds.

Republicans are playing down any suggestion that the IRA will deliver "product" before the general election, even on the basis of secure dumping.

Shambles

By the look of things, the Ulster Unionists could do with more time to get their electoral act together.

The kindest description of the situation in North Down for instance, is a shambles.

A party at war with itself is hardly best placed to fight an election.

The UUP leadership has been quietly working behind the scenes for months to winkle Peter Weir out of the party's list of election candidates.

He was suspended from the party after a disciplinary hearing and the chair of the North Down constituency association, Lady Sylvia Hermon, believes that effectively de-selected him.

End-to-end play ensued, mostly in court.

A special UUP executive meeting on Friday could resolve things - but you wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.