Events conspire against Labour

A former director of communications for the Labour Party, Joy Johnson, looks on as Blair's election bandwagon faces a rough ride.

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By Joy Johnson

Labour strategists were proceeding at a majestic pace towards an election on 3 May even allowing speculation for 5 April to act as a decoy.

A March Budget was being projected as an economic manifesto and announcements on crime and education were coming thick and fast.

We even had the chancellor teasing us at Labour's spring conference in Glasgow with promises of targeted tax cuts for families, pensioners, savings and investment. All pretence at Budget purdah has been swept away.

The best laid plans

But suddenly the economic feel good factor has given way to a sense of gloom. Harold Macmillan's famous maxim that the best-laid political plans can be knocked asunder by 'events dear boy events' is being played out in front of our eyes.

While no one believes that politicians are to blame for the foot-and-mouth disease, an event that appeared to come out of the blue. Nor Wednesday's tragic train crash at Selby.

Nevertheless it adds to the general impression that politicians don't make much of a difference so what is the point of voting.

Political allegiances may not change but the greatest enemy of all - low turn out, already a worry for Labour apparatchiks - could only get worse by these latest events.

Swift action

So far the government has stayed in control. Nick Brown, the agriculture minister has been applauded for his swift actions.

This is in contrast to the fuel tax crisis when Premier Blair told us that things would be back to normal in twenty-four hours. In fact it took forty-eight hours and a pre-Budget statement to get back on the winning track.

With reports that Tony Blair may be the first prime minister in 200 years forced to postpone Britain's census in peacetime because travel is restricted in the countryside has come talk of local elections cancelled and a general election delayed.

I can see the necessity of people collecting census information and if they are not able to fulfill their essential tasks then timetables have to be changed. But I can't see the same rationale for delaying May's election.

Getting the vote out

Doorstep canvassing has long since given way to party workers bashing phones. And changes to the rules on postal ballots means that trips to polling stations are not essential.

Delay will only benefit, however marginally, William Hague who must fervently hope that events of the nature of Peter Mandelson's latest forced resignation and over enthusiastic fund raising will proliferate.

Labour is seared by memories of James Callaghan delaying going to the polls until it was too late.

Picking the day

Crucially, the momentum that the government has built up with announcement after carefully planned announcement will be lost. Tony Blair is the first Labour prime minister since 1979 to have the luxury of deciding the election date. He must not lose the momentum that has built up.

Chancellor Brown is sitting on an enormous war chest - paying compensation to the farmers, those in ancillary industries and providing even more money for our rail infrastructure will still leave him with ample resources with which to make targeted tax cuts and hold something in reserve.

Unless the foot and mouth disease really does lead to a state of emergency Labour must stick to its course with the Budget in March engendering the fabled feel good factor necessary for economic and political success in May.

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Joy Johnson is strategic communications director at GPC International