The man who would be leader

Brown seems immune from government troubles

By BBC News Online political correspondent Nick Assinder

Ask any Labour MP who their next leader will be and the answer will almost always be the same: Gordon Brown.

Those on the right may suspect his redistributive instincts, while left-wingers may be appalled by his cosy relationship with the City and initial adherence to Conservative spending plans.

But the one thing all seem agreed on is the fact that the man who introduced prudence and stability to the Labour dictionary is destined to be Tony Blair's successor.

Brown's supporters, of course, believe he should already be prime minister.

They still harbour dark thoughts of revenge towards Mr Blair who, they claim, conspired with Peter Mandelson to deny Brown the leadership in the wake of John Smith's death in 1994.

Blair suffered difficult year

Blairites, on the other hand, insist there was never any deal for their man to stand aside in favour of Brown.

And in any case, they argue that the charismatic Blair was always more likely to win the 1997 election that the dour Scot.

This may all be true, but four years into the New Labour experiment it is Brown who looks the more durable of the two.

While the prime minister has been visibly changed by his experiences in power - most notably during his disastrous millennium year - the chancellor has gone from strength to strength.

And he enters the next general election in a far stronger position than the one he occupied in 1997.

Tiny pension increase

What has surprised many is that he has achieved this while, at the same time, having been closely associated with some of the biggest revolts to hit the government last year.

He was personally responsible for imposing the 75p increase in the basic state pension which sparked a huge backlash amongst Labour activists.

Pension revolt took shine off government

He was also accused of using massive fuel taxes to build up his Budget surplus.

But, despite all this, 2000 was a pretty good year for Gordon Brown.

Thanks to a mixture of nimble footwork and barely-disguised U-turns, he managed to duck out from under the buckets of muck being thrown over the government.

He promised extra cash for pensioners, faced down the fuel protesters and delivered a big-spending pre-budget package.

Socialist instincts

He ended years of Sue Lawley-style speculation by marrying his long-term girlfriend Sarah Macaulay.

And he even managed, on occasion, to break out in a genuine smile - as opposed to one of those spooky grimaces which used to punctuate his sentences with little regard to what he was actually saying at the time.

He has even seen former Labour deputy leader Roy Hattersley praising him for his socialist instincts.

His supporters now believe Budget day 2001 will be his crowning glory and set Labour on course for a second historic term in office.

But the bitter irony for Mr Brown is that, the more convincing the Labour victory is at the next election, the less likelihood there is of him winning the top job through a leadership challenge.

But one thing is certain, Brown has already shown he has the patience to play a long game, and he is not about to get impatient this late in the day.