Blair's election dilemma

Farms crisis would dominate an election campaign

By BBC News Online's political correspondent Nick Assinder.

It was Harold Macmillan who famously declared the thing he feared most in politics was "events".

That statement must be haunting Tony Blair at the moment.

It was almost certain that the prime minister was gearing up for a general election on 3 May and every sinew in the Labour machine was tensed for that campaign.

Every ministerial announcement was full of pre-election rhetoric, the recent Spring conference witnessed hustings-style speeches from Mr Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown, and constituency parties had been put on alert for an imminent poll.

There was even talk - most of it fanned only by the Westminster gossips - that the prime minister could even go earlier.

This was always based mostly on the idea that the opinion polls were giving him such a runaway lead and the economy was in such good nick that things could only get worse.

Crisis ended talk of early poll

Then out of the blue came the foot-and-mouth crisis and threw a tractor-sized spanner into the works.

Overnight, all talk of an April poll evaporated and even a May election was said to be in doubt.

Feelbad factor

It certainly appears the case that an April poll would prove hugely difficult for the government.

If the crisis was still running there would be the inevitable "feelbad factor" to contend with and the issue would be likely to dominate the entire campaign.

Disgruntled farmers and the countryside lobby would undoubtedly use the opportunity to attack the government on its wider rural policies.

And it would probably not be a good idea to allow thousands of politicians, canvassers and activists to go roaming around the country at the height of such an outbreak.

So April looks even less of a runner than ever and all attention is now focussed on 3 May.

But there are real dangers for Mr Blair in failing to go to the country in May.

Not only has he allowed speculation of a May poll to grow, he has actively encouraged it through his behaviour.

Many voters are already experiencing election fatigue, even before the real campaign has got off the ground.

And if May sails by without a poll, or any signals from the prime minister about when there might be one, there is a danger they will become seriously fed up and take their revenge in the polling booths.

Ministers will have to start re-jigging their timetables and announcements, and party workers will have to be stood down or risk burnout.

Political apathy

Then there are all the usual risks of a summer or autumn poll to contend with.

Blair could be boxed in

July and August are holiday months and notoriously bad for election campaigning while the autumn sees the onset of bad weather and political apathy.

And, by then, there really would have been time for things to have got worse for the prime minister.

The economic turndown in the US could have had a knock-on effect in Britain and there are likely to have been some serious setbacks for Labour in the local council elections.

And with just a few months to go before the official end of the parliament, in May 2002, the timetable would start closing in on Mr Blair.

This is not the sort of calculation any prime minister wants to make, particularly one who is so determined to control events.

But unless a grip can be got on the foot-and-mouth crisis in the near future, it is precisely the dilemma Mr Blair will face.