Powell turns new Mid-East page

Colin Powell faces a stiff test on his first foreign tour

By Washington correspondent Jonny Dymond

Colin Powell ventures abroad as US Secretary of State for the first time this weekend on a whirlwind tour of the Middle East.

He will meet Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, before continuing to Tel Aviv later on Saturday for meetings with Israeli political leaders.

Problems loom large, as the Arab-Israeli peace process is at an end and the sanctions regime against Iraq crumbles.

President George W Bush promises a fresh approach.

Scene of his great success: Colin Powell in 1991

Colin Powell has been to the Middle East before. Ten years ago - with four general's stars on his shoulders - he visited US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia before the war against Iraq.

Then he promised to keep Iraqi President Saddam Hussein guessing about US plans, but they would be "more than adequate". It all seems so long ago in a very different Middle East.

Anthony Cortesman from the Centre for Strategic Intelligence Studies, says the new Secretary of State faces a daunting list of problems.

"There's no easy way to come to grips with the violence between Israel and the Palestinians. There is a major problem that has built up with Iraq," he says.

"There is a feeling throughout the Gulf and, indeed, to some extent in Egypt, that Arab allies of the United States have been neglected at the expense of the peace process."

Policy vacuums

American leadership is the Middle East has been allowed to wither. Analysts agree that the Clinton administration's preoccupation with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict led to policy vacuums in other areas.

Israel and the Palestinians have a war - not a peace - process

"I'm not even sure there is a peace process at this point, and that's something that the Secretary is going to have to deal with," Anthony Cortesman says.

"There may something perilously close to a war process, and the goal today may be to contain the expansion of the second Intifada rather than to try to achieve a lasting and immediate peace," he added.

All of which may work in Colin Powell's favour, leaving him free to concentrate on the rest of the region.

Strong signal

Colin Powell will make seven stops on his tour - in line with what some might call a more holistic approach to the Middle East.

Condoleezza Rice is US National Security Advisor outlined this approach.

"What we'd like to do is send a strong signal to particularly our friends and allies in the region that we understand the interconnections between these.

"We need to remember that one of the great outcomes after the 1991 Gulf War was the Madrid process, which started then the peace process toward a final reconciliation of the region," she said.

US "leadership" needed here

There's been a lot of talk of a listening trip; President Bush has spoken of America being humble in its foreign policy. But Patrick Clawson, of the Washington Institute for Near East policy, has what he sees as a warning from recent history:

"Certainly he has to listen to people about the Iraq problem, but he's also got to show some leadership. If he just goes out there and listens about the Iraq problem, we'll have the same disaster that happened in 1993 when Secretary of State Warren Christopher went to Europe to listen about the Bosnia problem," Mr Clawson said.

Senior members of the new Republican administration poured scorn on many aspects of President Clinton's foreign policy.

Colin Powell is about to show whether or not he can offer a decisive alternative.