Counting the cost of the disease

Gloomy times ahead for Britain's farmers

By BBC News Online's Jorn Madslien

The outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the UK could have hardly come at a worse time for the country's farmers.

Still reeling from the impact of the BSE crisis, just recovering from a recent outbreak of swine fever, and hurt by the collapse of prices for farm produce, farmers now find themselves with a massive surplus of animals they cannot sell.

The disease has already threatened to wipe out the country's exports of lambs and pigs.

Even farms outside the affected areas will be hurt as all abattoirs and markets in England and Wales will be closed for at least one week, starting on Saturday.

There will also be a seven-day ban on the movement of livestock in the UK.

The trade in pigs and sheep (2000)

Pigs

£9.4m - live pigs

£139m - pork

£21m - bacon

£14m - sausages etc.

Sheep

£32m - live sheep

£180m - meat

Total weekly value

£8m

Source: Meat and Livestock Commission

Most farmers should be able to hold on for a week, John Webster, the professor of animal husbandry at Bristol University Veterinary School, told BBC News Online.

He also said it was a good idea to stop the movement of animals in an effort to contain the highly contagious disease.

A week of inactivity will cost the industry £8m in lost earnings.

However, if the shutdown goes on for a long time, the farmers' lack of an income will be coupled with mounting costs as they have to continue to feed the animals.

Soon, lack of space could also become an issue as the animals continue to breed.

Pig and sheep farmers who are already struggling with little or no profits will be forced out of business, said Professor Webster.

Changing farming

This will not spell the end for the pig and sheep farming industry, but in the long run it could change the way the animals are farmed in the UK, the Professor added.

Many farmers will go bankrupt as a result of the foot and mouth disease outbreak

He predicted that if the problem persists, this could accelerate the trend towards huge factory-farming units.

Such units are more economically viable, but they are also marred by difficulties ranging from increased use of antibiotics to poor animal welfare conditions.

Large units are also serious polluters, while small units where the waste is less concentrated can act more as fertilisers.

The economic problems will spread as fast as the infectious disease

However, under today's system - where animals travel long distances from small units to large, centralised abattoirs - the risk of infectious diseases spreading is great.

With fewer units that are further away from each other, the risk of diseases spreading would be reduced.