CIA calculates world leaders' heart risk

Boris Yeltsin suffered from heart disease while in office

World leaders will be forced from office for a variety of reasons over the next year - but heart disease is unlikely to be one of them.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has calculated that heart disease is unlikely to be the reason why any world leader steps down in the next 12 months.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of natural death among government heads, who are for the most part men.

But doctors working for the US agency have calculated that in the next 12 months just two world leaders are likely to suffer heart problems serious enough to cause short-term disability.

Principal decision-makers receive the best medicines, technology and professional services

CIA report

And neither is likely to be forced out of office by their health problems.

CIA doctors based their predictions on a study of news reports about 64 heads of government who suffered their first attack of chest pain, irregular heat beat or heart attack while in office between 1970 and 1999.

They found that the incidence of coronary heart disease among world leaders fell 42% over the 30-year period to a level comparable to that of US men in general.

The fall is likely to be due to better treatments for conditions such as diabetes, hypertension and elevated cholesterol levels.

Trend

According to the CIA doctors, this trend means that only one or two world leaders could be expected to have a "coronary heart disease event" this year.

And there is almost no chance that they would die within 12 months of such an event. Twenty years that risk was as high as 52%.

The CIA report says: "It is common knowledge that principal decision-makers receive the best medicines, technology and professional services that their countries can offer or import.

"Usually, they can also travel to the best institutions in the world."

The study did not specify which leaders might be at risk.

No world leader from the 1990s left office within a year of a first heart attack.

But one-third did in the 1980s, as did two-thirds in the 1970s.

The most notable case of a world leader suffering from protracted heart problems was former Russian president Boris Yeltsin.

He underwent a multiple heart bypass in 1996 and spent most of his last year in office in a hospital before stepping down unexpectedly in 1999.

The CIA study said 94% of world leaders who suffered a heart attack or another acute problem a decade ago are still alive, compared with 53% from the 1980s who survived for a decade or more after having heart problems.

The rate was only 15% for world leaders from the 1970s.

Improvements in survival rates occurred despite the general population in many parts of the world only now beginning to see a drop in deaths from coronary heart disease.

In some areas, such as eastern Europe, coronary heart disease deaths are still on the rise.

The findings were published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine.