Analysis: Russia's defence gambit

Russia has raised objections to US defence plans

By BBC News Online's Stephen Mulvey

Russia's proposals for a European missile defence system have both a military and a political dimension.

In military terms they recognise that there is a potential threat from "rogue states" that could recklessly launch a missile attack on Europe regardless of the likelihood of a crushing military response.

They are trying to muddy the waters, or even to cause splits in the [Nato] alliance

Analyst Andrew Brookes

The solution they propose is a mobile system of anti-missile missiles that could be moved to a region close to any perceived threat.

No technical details have been revealed - it is not even known whether they appear in the documents handed to Nato in Moscow - but the proposal appears to be for a system to stop incoming missiles with a range of less than 3,500km.

Funding problem

This means it would not violate the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty - but at the same time, it would not protect northern Europe from a missile fired from Iran or Iraq or beyond.

"What the Russians are proposing might be able to defend southern and central Europe quite effectively, but not the northern part," says the editor of Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, Duncan Lennox.

He says some of Russia's anti-missile systems are technically more advanced than the American Patriot system, which was used against Iraqi Scud missiles in the 1991 Gulf War.

Some of Russia's anti-missile systems are said to be more advanced than the US Patriot system

The plan proposed for Europe might be based on the S-400 he says, or it could contain something new.

What Russia does not have, and does not have the resources to develop, experts say, is anything analogous to the US's proposed National Missile Defence (NMD) programme, which is supposed to shoot down the fastest existing missiles with ranges of thousands of kilometres.

This is thought likely to cost in the region of $60bn or more to develop, while Russia's annual military budget is a mere $6bn.

Tactical system

As one Russian military analyst has pointed out, Russia does not even appear to be able to afford night-capable helicopters for its forces in Chechnya.

Russia's proposal may be an attempt to start a dialogue on missile defence

In political terms, Russia may be hoping to exploit the missile defence question to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States.

"They are trying to muddy the waters, or even to cause splits in the [Nato] alliance," says Wing Commander Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

If Russia can persuade Europe that the threat from rogue states can be answered by a tactical rather than a strategic missile system, then Europe may be less likely to accept the US's plans for NMD.

Already some European governments are concerned that US determination to go ahead with the plan could lead them to withdraw from the ABM treaty - one of the cornerstones of the existing system of arms control - and begin a new arms race.

But the US cannot go ahead with NMD without the support of at least the UK and Denmark, because of the need to use radar tracking stations on the North York Moors, and in Greenland (whose foreign relations Denmark handles).

Mr Lennox, however, said he thought the Russian proposal may be an attempt to start a dialogue on missile defence, in which Moscow could voice its concerns and explore possibilities for a compromise.

He said Russia had suggested working with the West on missile defence systems on numerous occasions since 1992.

"The Russians would like to get the Nato talking to them, and then German, France and the UK," he said.

"In my view it's a good thing."