Pessimism clouds peace hopes

Peace seems unlikely in the current climate

By Paul Wood in Jerusalem

Ordinary Israelis and Palestinians are watching President Clinton's efforts to salvage a Middle East peace deal from the embers of his administration with interest, but with little expectation.

Both sides want a peace deal, but both are weary too of a peace process which seems to be going nowhere. Israeli and Palestinian public opinion also differ greatly about what kind of peace deal there should be.

Issues such as sovereignty over the holy sites have so far proved unbridgeable, ceding the ground to hardliners on both sides who say a deal is not possible under the current conditions.

Yasser Arafat: Under pressure not to compromise

The Palestinians have suffered the brunt of the casualties of the last three months of fighting, with more than 350 dead, nine times the Israeli casualty rate. From that point of view they have most to gain from a deal.

But the fact that there are so many dead, makes it very difficult for Yasser Arafat to sign anything which looks like a compromise peace with Israel. To accept what was offered in Camp David would be to admit that many died for nothing.

All out war

On the streets of Ramallah and Gaza City, there are almost daily angry demonstrations at funerals for those martyred to the cause. There is no shortage of volunteers to join them.

Some Palestinians would like Saddam Hussein to intervene

Typically, bodies are carried through the streets wrapped in the Palestinian flag, followed by masked gunmen, as the crowd shouts its defiance of Israel and, increasingly, of the American peace proposals.

The most radical Palestinians demand all-out war with Israel, calling for Saddam Hussein to bomb Tel Aviv, revelling in the attacks which have been carried out against Jewish civilians.

"The only language the Israelis understand is force," one angry demonstrator told me at a protest in Gaza City organised by the Islamic resistance movement Hamas.

Anti-American feeling is running high

Mainstream Palestinian opinion appears to support the hardliners' demand that no peace deal be signed without full sovereignty over the holy sites in Jerusalem, and a right of return for Palestinian refugees.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has said that such a right of return could be exercised by as many as four million Palestinians, and would mean the end of Israel as a Jewish state.

Electoral strategy

He has also said he would never give the Palestinians sovereignty over the Temple Mount in Jerusalem's Old City, which Mr Barak has said he regards as central to Jewish culture and identity.

These Jewish girls' banner reads 'The Temple Mount is ours'

In this he is supported by mainstream Israeli opinion - indeed it is part of his electoral strategy to keep repeating this declaration in an attempt to catch the hardliner Ariel Sharon in the opinion polls.

Yet a peace deal would be very popular with Israelis. They do not like the long terms of Army service imposed on most Israelis.

Most important of all, they do not feel safe in their own communities following a number of bus bomb attacks and shooting incidents. A peace deal, they hope, would put an end to this fear.