Analysis: Serbia votes for change

Kostunica: Ready to complete democratic reconstruction

By south-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

The Yugoslav President, Vojislav Kostunica, has said the democratic reconstruction of Yugoslavia and its main constituent republic, Serbia, will now be completed, following the landslide victory of his supporters in Serbian parliamentary elections.

Mr Kostunica's remarks came shortly after results which indicated that his alliance, the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, the DOS, had secured two-thirds of the seats in parliament, while ex-President Slobodan Milosevic's previously dominant Socialists had been marginalised with under 15% of the vote.

In the autumn, the 18-party DOS alliance emerged as the largest grouping in the Yugoslav federal elections.

Djindjic: Huge task ahead

That coincided with Mr Milosevic's defeat by Vojislav Kostunica in the Yugoslav presidential race.

This time, the DOS has received the overwhelming endorsement of Serbia's electorate.

So much so, that with its majority in parliament, it will be able to amend the constitution.

That will not be an unmitigated blessing for Serbia's new leaders.

International pressure on Belgrade is expected to increase - both at the Serbian and Yugoslav levels - to change constitutional provisions that ban the extradition of citizens to other countries.

War crimes

Until now, this provision has been cited as one of the reasons for refusing to hand over Mr Milosevic and other indicted war crimes suspects to the UN Tribunal in The Hague.

Reviving one of the poorest economies in Europe will be a priority

Belgrade's new leaders have indicated they would prefer to see Mr Milosevic tried at home.

But if they want to attract international aid and foreign government credits, they will have to give something in return.

And that may well include the extradition of war crimes suspects.

For that reason, the war crimes issue looks set to be closely linked to the new government's top task on the domestic front: to revive the economy - now one of the poorest in Europe.

Fighting corruption

Zoran Djindjic, the DOS politician who's expected to take over as Serbia's Prime Minister, will also face the enormous task of dismantling the Socialists' ruling hierarchy - inherited from the communist era - which dominated Serbia's political life, its entire public sector, its economy and media for 10 years.

The West wants Milosevic to be handed over

Already some changes have been made as a result of the anti-Milosevic uprising in October which not only helped secure Mr Kostunica's election as president, but it's also led to the purge of Milosevic-era officials across Serbia.

But much more will need to be done to root out corruption, and to introduce democratic standards so that the public service media - which in recent weeks has switched sides between the Socialists and the DOS - can actually become truly impartial.

The Socialists - and, first and foremost, Mr Milosevic - now face a bleak future. But they are not the only losers.

Winners and losers

Among their closest associates, the neo-communist YUL party led by Mr Milosevic's deeply unpopular wife, Mira Markovic, has been eliminated with less than 1% of the vote.

The ultra-nationalist Radicals - until now the strongest party next to the Socialists - have been reduced to a rump, mainly because their presence in the Milosevic administration has discredited them in the eyes of the electorate.

Draskovic: One of the big losers

Another, even bigger loser, is the maverick conservative politician, Vuk Draskovic - for long the best-known leader of the anti-Milosevic opposition - whose party has now apparently failed to clear the 5% hurdle to get into parliament.

Mr Draskovic has had to pay the penalty for flirting with Mr Milosevic's administration at the time of the Kosovo conflict, and of his more recent refusal to line up behind the DOS alliance.

On the other hand, the ultra-nationalist Serbian Unity Party - established by Zeljko Raznatovic, the war crimes suspect and gangland boss who was gunned down earlier this year - appears to have scraped into parliament with just over 5% of the vote.

Its relative success may be due, in part, to the ethnic Albanian insurgency in southern Serbia's Presevo valley.

Silent majority

But perhaps more important was the low turnout - just under 60% - which probably favoured the extremists.

With the DOS landslide predicted by opinion polls for several weeks, many of Serbia's "silent majority" did not bother to turn up to vote.

In spite of the low turn-out, the DOS has a strong mandate because of its overwhelming majority. And in the longer term, that will increase pressure on the new government as it tries to meet the perhaps excessive expectations of the electorate.

Mr Djindjic will have a huge task on his hands, whether in trying to kick-start the economy, keeping his broad-based alliance together or negotiating deals to prevent Serbia's partner republic, Montenegro, and the province of Kosovo from drifting away towards independence.