Year ends with uncertainty ahead

By BBC Northern Ireland political editor Stephen Grimason

It has been another rollercoaster year for Northern Ireland politics.

The millennium started with an assembly heading for the rocks and as 2001 beckons, another suspension of devolution is a distinct possibility.

But for those in the pro-Good Friday Agreement camp, there have been credible gains for the peace process.

Yes, politics was seen to fail when the assembly and cross-border bodies went into cold storage last February.

But they came back in May and in almost nine months of government in the year 2000, the ministers and assembly members have delivered the first Northern Ireland Budget in three decades.

The deal which restored the institutions however, could hold within it the seeds of destruction.

'Tough nut to crack'

More accurately, the interpretation of that deal has been a major bone of contention ever since.

And the current crisis over the chicken and egg situation surrounding dismantling army bases in south Armagh and decommissioning, is proving a tough nut to crack.

The year had started with a the Assembly Executive in operation for less than three weeks, but January also brought the Patten report on policing which was bitterly attacked by unionists as a virtual disbandment of the RUC.

Patten further soured an Ulster Unionist Council already angered by lack of movement on decommissioning, and frantic attempts were made to cut a deal on weapons before a UUC meeting on 12 February.

David Trimble: To face party council again in New Year

First Minister and Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble had already placed a post-dated letter of resignation in the hands of his party President Josias Cunningham, in the event of decommissioning not taking place.

Twenty four hours before the UUC met, Secretary of State Peter Mandelson had no option but to suspend devolution and return Northern Ireland to direct rule from Westminster.

The bitterness of that time, with allegations on all sides of bad faith, was to have a lasting effect on the body politic.

When yet another talks initiative was put together at Hillsborough in May, complete with UK prime minister and Irish taoiseach, there seemed little hope of progress.

Arms dumps inspected

An IRA statement was to transform the situation. In summary it said if the British Government fully implemented the Good Friday Agreement irreversibly then the IRA leadership would initiate a process putting its weapons "completely and verifiably beyond use".

In addition, contact would be resumed with General de Chastelain's arms commission and international inspectors would be able to see arms dumps.

Within days the Assembly Executive was back in business with the DUP suggesting it was semi-detached from the whole affair by embarking on a policy of rotating its two ministers.

What should have been the crucial breakthrough however, was gradually weakened by more complaints of bad faith.

Tony Blair: accused of welching on deal

Sinn Fein accused the Prime Minister Tony Blair of welching on his side of the bargain by not delivering on promises made about demilitarisation, particularly in relation to bases and watchtowers in south Armagh.

The government and the Ulster Unionists in turn accused the IRA of not fullfilling its part of the bargain by not re-establishing meaningful links with General de Chastelain.

David Trimble's anti-agreement dissidents harried their leader throughout the year and London and Dublin were at times almost obsessed with keeping him in power on the grounds that if he went, the arithmetic in the assembly chamber would make it impossible to elect a successor.

Survival at a price

The loss of the south Antrim by-election, following the death of Clifford Forsythe, provided more bad news for Mr Trimble at a time when he also lost the steadying influence of his party president Josias Cunningham, who died in a road accident.

He survived another challenge to party policy, largely led by Lagan Valley MP Jeffrey Donaldson at the fourth UUC meeting of 2000, but again it was almost a 50-50 split.

This time he paid a price, having to introduce tough measures against Sinn Fein, removing them from cross-border bodies, in order to secure the support of delegates.

That issue is now in court with judgement expected in the New Year.

In essence, he had bought into a key principle of the "No" camp; that there was something wrong with republicans being in government.

The policing controversy, which had alternately simmered and boiled all year, came to a head with the enacting of the Police Act in November.

The SDLP and Sinn Fein said it was not a full reflection of Patten's original intentions, even though Chris Patten himself said, whatever the rights and wrongs, they should get on with it and urge nationalists and republicans to join the new force.

Uncertain times ahead

As the year ends, key decisions have to be taken by everyone.

There is the threat of another assembly suspension if the weapons and army bases circle is not squared, and potential chaos beckons for the Policing Board if the SDLP does not nominate members.

All this will be played out against the background of forthcoming elections, general and local, perhaps as early as March - not a time when political parties are inclined to take risks.

Perhaps the biggest decision will be that facing Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble who has to contend with another UUC meeting in January, the sixth in 15 months.

Does he want to go into an election with Sinn Fein as partners in government or should he seek another suspension and campaign on a tougher and more traditional line?

His decision could well decide the political fate of Northern Ireland for years to come.