Socialists' slide from power

Smoke rises above Belgrade on the day of the uprising in October

By South-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

The Socialist Party had remained united and in power without interruption since it emerged from the ruling communist organisation 10 years ago - a feat unparalleled anywhere else in central and south-eastern Europle.

But now the prospects look bleak for Mr Milosevic and his party.

Three months ago, he received about one-third of the vote when he was defeated by Vojislav Kostunica in the Yugoslav presidential race. This time his party gained only about 14%.

The reason for the big difference is not that Mr Milosevic is any more popular than his party. Rather, it reflects the collapse in backing both for Mr Milosevic and the socialists since Mr Milosevic's defeat in September's presidential poll.

Opposition supporters celebrate the overthrow of Milosevic

That defeat was a humiliating blow to Mr Milosevic, who had been dominating the Serbian political scene since he became Serbia's communist leader in 1987 - three years before he rebranded his organisation as the Socialist Party.

But as a result of his previous prominence and his continuing control of the party machinery, last month the socialists re-elected Mr Milosevic as their leader.

But the electorate no longer wanted either the former strongman of Serbia or his party in power.

The socialists were blamed for the economic disaster their rule inflicted on Serbia - widespread poverty, mass unemployment and incomes that are now among the lowest in Europe.

Former first lady Mira Markovic

They were also held responsible for widespread corruption and the cronyism that allowed close associates of Mr Milosevic and his wife, Mira Markovic, to run Serbia's institutions.

Several of these former associates, including Zoran Lilic, Mr Milosevic's predecessor as Yugoslavia's president, have turned their backs on the Milosevic couple and the socialists.

Scandals

More importantly, in the run-up to the elections the former administration came under attack from the state-controlled media - once the mouthpiece of the Socialist Party.

These media outlets turned against the former regime, and have been in the forefront of exposing the scandals of the past few years.

There was little the socialists could do to slow the electoral steamroller of their opponents, the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS).

For his part, Mr Milosevic tried to exploit dissatisfaction with the long overdue price rises introduced in recent weeks - even though his Socialists were as much part of Serbia's semi-paralysed caretaker government as their uneasy coalition partners, the DOS.

Indicted

In staying at the helm of the socialists, Mr Milosevic has tried to rehabilitate himself as an opposition leader and as an acceptable politician.

Gaining a seat would give Mr Milosevic immunity

The former President of Albania, Sali Berisha, succeeded in doing just that after he survived an uprising against his administration in 1997 - in the wake of which his party suffered a heavy defeat at the polls.

Mr Milosevic was less likely to have succeeded because he had been indicted for war crimes by the UN Tribunal in The Hague.

Indeed, by gaining a seat in parliament he will get initial immunity from prosecution - whether by The Hague Tribunal or by Serbian prosectors on possible charges of embezzlement, electoral fraud or political killings.

And although that immunity can be lifted by parliament, the time that process is likely to take may present Mr Milosevic with various options - possibly even that of attempting to flee Serbia.

Meanwhile, the socialists are unlikely to return to Serbian politics as a significant player until they can rid themselves of Mr Milosevic and his friends who are now so much associated in the public mind with a decade disasters.

Even if they can remove the Milosevic group, the short-term prospects remain grim for a party that has been used to enjoying the fruits of power since the communist era.