Thinktank warns of Burmese government vulnerability

A report on Burma by the influential think tank, the International Crisis Group, has warned of the possible collapse of military rule in the country.

The report says that while the military government has had unprecedented success in pacifying a number of insurgent ethnic groups, these cease-fires haven't necessarily translated into a consolidation of power.

It says that the generals have been under pressure over soldiers' pay, and the logistical problems of supplying them with food and equipment.

In its most dire prediction, the ICG warns that if military rule collapses before pro-democracy forces are ready to take power , and before the armed forces are reconciled to civilian rule, Burma could face renewed civil war. The International Crisis Group concludes that western economic and military sanctions have done little to undermine the regime, and criticises the strategic thinking that has gone into them.

From the newsroom of the BBC World Service