Analysis: Kashmir peace moves

Most Kashmiris are fed up with violence

By South Asia analyst Zubair Ahmed

Barely hours after the Indian ceasefire was extended on Wednesday morning, Pakistan made the dramatic claim that it had already partially withdrawn its troops from the Line of Control, which divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Vajpayee: hopes for peace talks

It did not reveal how many troops have been withdrawn, but it called the announcement a bold move to improve the situation.

Pakistan asked India to reciprocate.

The Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, while announcing the ceasefire extension, voiced hopes the peace talks between the two countries would soon start.

It appears that both countries are trying to out-do one another in an attempt to be seen as making genuine efforts for peace.

Hopeful signs

For the people of Kashmir, today's developments must surely have given a glimmer of hope.

More than 34,000 people have died in Kashmir since armed militancy began 11 years ago, leaving most Kashmiris fed up with violence.

The extension of the ceasefire was widely expected as the Indian prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the Home Minister, LK Advani, had said that if the violence subsided in Kashmir they would not hesitate to extend the ceasefire.

The ceasefire began on the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan at the end of November and India believes it has been welcomed by most Kashmiris.

Citing a reduction in militant attacks, the Indian prime minister has now extended the unilateral ceasefire by another month.

Separatists divided

India's latest move comes ahead of the executive council meeting of the Kashmiri umbrella group, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, which is being reconvened on Thursday.

Hurriyat leaders are divided over their response to the ceasefire

Its meeting on Sunday to frame a response to the Indian government's first ceasefire ended acrimoniously and there are reports that the group is sharply divided.

Senior Hurriyat leaders, including its Chairman Professor Abdul Ghani Bhat, have welcomed the Indian offer, saying it reflected a positive change in India's thinking - provided it was a sincere move towards a lasting settlement of the Kashmir dispute.

But other Hurriyat leaders, such as Syed Ali Shah Geelani, say it is a sinister move by India to sabotage the peace process.

Most militant groups have also rejected the latest Indian offer.

Who will prevail?

So, will the pro-ceasefire elements prevail upon the opposite faction in the Hurriyat's executive council and influence the armed militants?

Much depends on what the pro-ceasefire leaders expect from talks with the Indian Government or with the governments of both India and Pakistan.

The pro-ceasefire elements have not spelt out the bottom-line.

Western diplomats say they expect a solution in which the Indian and Pakistani parts of Jammu and Kashmir will have maximum internal autonomy, while the Line of Control will be turned into a soft border so that people from either side can easily cross over to the other.

The opponents of the ceasefire say they cannot accept any solution within the framework of the Indian constitution.

They say the Indian government will drag the proposed talks on until it becomes difficult for the militants to revive their armed struggle.

But by extending the ceasefire, India aims to put the Hurriyat under further pressure to respond positively.

India also hopes that if violence subsided, the pro-ceasefire elements in Kashmir might be able to persuade the militants to resume talks with India.

Earlier talks ended inconclusively in September after the Hizbul Mujahideen group insisted Pakistan be included in the talks.