Appeal of anti-Milosevic alliance

DOS supporters want change - but it may not be easy

By south-east Europe analyst, Gabriel Partos

A prominent Serbian politician, Zoran Djindjic, who is tipped to become his country's prime minister after Saturday's parliamentary elections, has said his aim is to transform Serbia into a source of stability after years of conflict in the Balkans.

The election may spell the end for Milosevic and his Socialist party

Mr Djindjic's remarks came as the election campaign was drawing to a close, and coincided with opinion polls that suggested his coalition - the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) - was poised for a landslide victory.

Three months ago, the DOS emerged as the largest grouping in the Yugoslav federal parliament.

At that time, it also supported Vojislav Kostunica's successful bid for the Yugoslav presidency.

Popularity

According to polls - and these turned out to be highly accurate in predicting Mr Kostunica's success - the DOS can expect somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters of the vote.

A victory on that scale would extend and cement the DOS control over power - a process which began with Mr Kostunica's defeat of ex-President Slobodan Milosevic in September.

Zoran Djindjic is tipped to become his country's prime minister

There are several reasons for the DOS alliance's current high rating in the polls.

It is closely identified with the immensely popular President Kostunica, who is widely regarded as the embodiment of the revolution that brought down the Milosevic regime.

And with the fall of that administration, people's fears - whether of intimidation by the police or of loss of jobs in the public sector - have evaporated.

International recognition

Besides, the state-controlled media has turned against Mr Milosevic's Socialists, and has been in the forefront of revealing scandals and corruption under the old regime.

Last but not least, President Kostunica's federal Yugoslav administration has already notched up some considerable achievements - particularly in the field of foreign relations.

Mr Kostunica is a nationalist

Within weeks of gaining power, it ended Yugoslavia's quasi-pariah status by restoring diplomatic relations with the major Western powers - Britain, France, Germany and the United States.

It also gained Belgrade membership of the United Nations and other international organisations.

The DOS leadership is now trying to translate the new-found international goodwill into achievements on the domestic front.

The current Serbian caretaker government - which brings together the DOS and the Socialists - has been largely paralysed in the run-up to the elections.

Domestic strife

One of the more acute problems is the conflict in the Presevo valley in southern Serbia, where ethnic Albanian guerrillas continue to challenge Serbia's authority.

Mr Djindjic, who is the DOS candidate for the post of prime minister, is hoping to exploit the improved relations with Serbia's neighbours to organise joint action to tackle the crisis.

He has already been in touch with Macedonia and Greece and is hoping - perhaps at this stage not very realistically - to get Albania involved as well.

Problems, such as that of the Presevo valley, are not going to be easy to resolve even after the DOS's expected victory in Saturday's elections.

Possible divisions

Meanwhile, many observers are beginning to look beyond the elections, and they are wondering just how long the DOS - an alliance of 18 separate parties and groups - is likely to stay united.

President Kostunica himself has hinted that the issue is likely to come to the surface in the future.

Some of these differences involve the two key players, Mr Kostunica and Mr Djindjic. Their disagreements are partly political and partly personal.

Mr Kostunica is more of a nationalist, with a conservative, somewhat legalistic mindset. Mr Djindjic is a pragmatic centrist with far fewer reservations about Nato and the United States.

It is quite possible that if - and, more likely, when - the DOS breaks up, the main line of fracture will divide these two leaders and their parties.

Indeed, President Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia and Mr Djindjic's Democratic Party are likely to emerge as the two strongest parties within the DOS.

Once disagreements over policy begin to take clearer shape, they are likely to become chief rivals.

For the moment, though, the expected DOS government is likely to stay together.

The smaller parties, in particular, within the DOS alliance will be keen to preserve a degree of unity - and their places in their hoped-for new government.