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Friday, May 29, 1998 Published at 14:39 GMT 15:39 UK


World: S/W Asia

Pakistan races ahead - but where to?

Pakistanis give prayers of thanks - but where will the nuclear tests lead?

By the BBC Defence correspondent, Jonathan Marcus

Despite the fact that Pakistan's technological base is less sophisticated than India's, the Islamabad government may have leap-frogged ahead in the regional arms race.

Largely due to assistance from China, Pakistan may well have a limited number of warheads that are small enough to be fitted onto ballistic missiles. And Pakistan's most advanced missile system - which was tested only last month - has a potential range of up to 1,500km.

Pakistan's long-range missile programme, which may also draw upon Chinese technology, is thought to be at a more advanced stage than India's comparable systems. This is what makes the suggestions from Pakistan that it is to press ahead with the serial manufacture of warheads and missiles so worrying.

India's own nuclear test series indicated that it too was seeking to develop a miniaturised warhead to arm its missile force. All these developments pose two major challenges for the international community.

First it must find a mechanism to draw India, Pakistan and China as well into some sort of security discussion that might increase stability in the region.

Short-term goals would be a formal statement on the part of India and Pakistan to renounce future testing and perhaps a halt to the production of fissile materials for bomb-making.

But there are also proliferation concerns as well. The United States in particular will be working to ensure that India and Pakistan do nothing to assist other would-be nuclear weapons states from acquiring the necessary technology.



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