Domestic dramas dog Apec heads

Fujimori and Estrada (in centre) both face political crises

By BBC News Online's Mangai Balasegaram

Some of the world's leaders who have gathered in the tiny oil-rich sultanate of Brunei for the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (Apec) summit may well wonder if they will ever attend such meetings again.

Apec represents:

21 member states

Two-thirds of the world's population

60 % of global output

Almost half of world trade

Almost half the leaders of the 21 Apec countries are facing political uncertainty back at home - either because of political crises or upcoming elections - or are preparing to leave office.

There are even some doubts about the future of the grouping as a whole.

The leaders of the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan are all fighting for their political lives as lawmakers attempt to oust them, while some uncertainty hangs over leadership in Thailand and Canada with upcoming elections.

It may be hard for them to leave their domestic dramas behind - and indeed, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien has chosen to stay at home to campaign for national elections on 27 November.

Japan's Yoshiro Mori may face a no-confidence motion from lawmakers

The United States - which was considered a driving force of Apec under President Bill Clinton - is also facing a leadership dilemma, with the winner of one of the most bitter presidential races yet to be decided.

Other presidents are also on their way out - Mexico's Ernesto Zedillo has just days left in office after losing an election while Peru's Alberto Fujimori has agreed to step down next year, amid a scandal involving his spy chief.

Apec's own crisis

No wonder, then, that some analysts are questioning whether Apec will be able to forge clear agreements.

Clinton praised Apec in a speech

Ironically, Apec itself is facing its own crisis, with rising doubts about its viability and future.

Its relevance has been questioned in recent years, after the World Trade Organisation (WTO) took up the mantle to push free trade - a key objective.

The group has also become increasingly split over trade liberalisation, with some countries wary of globalisation.

Clinton's reassurance

There were fears that the departure from office of Mr Clinton, a firm Apec supporter, would sound the group's death knell.

I know I can safely predict that this will be my last Apec summit. I just don't know who will be here next year

President Clinton

The lack of a clear leader to follow him has left many wondering whether Apec will still receive US support.

"People came to Apec with an expectation that the nature of the new administration would be known," New Zealand Foreign Minister Phil Goff said in preliminary meetings.

However, US officials have dismissed such concerns, and Mr Clinton has also reiterated support for Apec, adding he hoped it would continue indefinitely.

Apec members

Australia

Brunei

Canada

Chile

China

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Mexico

New Zealand

Papua New Guinea

Peru

Philippines

Russia

Singapore

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

United States

Vietnam

He also assured world leaders there was "nothing to worry about" regarding the ongoing contest to determine the future US leader, adding both presidential candidates supported a more integrated global economy.

"And as nearly as I could tell there is virtually no disagreement on that," he said.

He added, however, that he was not able to predict everything.

"One of the things I have learned is that we should all be very careful about making predictions about the future," he said.

"But I know I can safely predict that this will be my last Apec summit. I just don't know who will be here next year."