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Saturday, 11 December, 1999, 07:50 GMT
Analysis: Contemplating life without Tudjman

Tudjman campaigning in 1997


By Nick Thorpe in Zagreb

The children are clutching candles in their hands. Behind them, the shell-marked walls of a Catholic church in Vukovar.

Not an image from the terrible siege of the city, eight years ago, but from the Croatian press.

President Tudjman, the man who led his country to independence from Yugoslavia, had been in Zagreb hospital undergoing treatment for stomach cancer.


quote
Prayers were said for him in churches across Croatia, but it was this image, with all the symbolism which Vukovar holds for the Croats, which stole the front pages.

"He was a strong leader during difficult times," says Slobodan Lang, President Tudjman's adviser on humanitarian affairs. "Times when Europe lacked vision."

Mr Lang's words say as much about Croatia's ambivalent relationship with the statesmen of Europe, and particularly the European Union, as they do about the country's former president.

War leader

In 1991, close on the heels of Slovenia, Croatia declared independence.

The country's Serbs - then 12% of the population - hesitated between taking up arms to stop independence, or trying to gain maximum rights for themselves in an independent country.

Narrowly, they decided in favour of war, thinking they could rely on the Yugoslav army, which had barracks throughout the country.

The first, often-heard criticism of President Tudjman begins here - if he had only been more intelligent, less nationalistic, more tolerant, perhaps he could have persuaded the Serbs that they had a place in his new Croatia.

Instead, war raged for six months. About a third of Croatia was lost to the Serbs in battle, and 10,000 people died.


shot of Franjo Tudjman alongside President Izetbegovic Tudjman signs the Bosnia peace deal in November 1995
The United Nations got permission to patrol the "lost third", but by 1995, President Tudjman lost patience with diplomatic efforts to win back the territory, and his army seized it by force in two, blitzkrieg-like operations, "Flash" and "Storm".

The last area, around Vukovar, was handed back by the Serbs without a fight.

The international community blows hot and cold on Croatia, but there is little sympathy for its president.

War crimes

The European Union have made three conditions to Croatia, for it to apply for EU membership - full co-operation with the War Crimes tribunal in the Hague, more progress on Serb returns to their old homes, and the holding of free and fair elections.

The first two conditions grate on both the government's, and the opposition's nerves.

Croatia has already co-operated reluctantly with the tribunal, and several Croats accused of war crimes during the war in Bosnia have been extradited to the Hague - something Serbia has never done.


President Tudjman smiling Tudjman: Celebrated his 77th birthday on 14 May
But now the court wants to investigate the aftermath of operations Flash and Storm - the alleged war crimes committed by Croatian army soldiers against the few Serbs who remained.

Croats feel that the whole validity of the operations is being questioned. The EU, which has been supporting the attempts by the International War Crimes' Tribunal to investigate atrocities committed in Croatia, denies this.

Elections expected

Parliamentary elections will be held soon. They were expected on 22 December, but that date has now been thrown into doubt.

Now that Mr Tudjman is dead, presidential elections must be held within 60 days. Parliamentary and presidential elections could be held simultaneously in January.

At the moment, an opposition alliance led by the Social Democrats (SDP) and the Social Liberals (HSLS) is well ahead in opinion polls.

A defeat at elections for the movement which Mr Tudjman established in 1990 - the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) - would signal a new era.



Members of the party dominate not only the political life, but the economy, and the media.

So much so that doubts have been raised about whether they would be willing to give up power if they lost. But there have been reassuring words as well.

"The democratic institutions of Croatia are strong enough" says Ivica Racan, leader of the Social Democrats, and the opposition candidate for prime minister.

"Non-democratic moves, after the election, have never been discussed by the HDZ" says Ivica Pasalic, President Tudjman's number two in the ruling party.

Across Croatia, the people are braced for a world without President Tudjman. The children of Vukovar now have to remember the war, without the war leader

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See also:
29 Oct 99 |  Europe
Croatia enacts much-criticised election laws
18 Oct 99 |  Europe
No extradition for Croatian generals
20 Apr 99 |  Kosovo
Analysis: Who will rebuild the Balkans?

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