Can Eta truce signal lasting peace?

By Danny Wood
BBC News, Madrid

Many leaders are cautiously optimistic the violence could end

The Basque separatist group Eta has announced numerous ceasefires before but the difference this time is that its statement explicitly mentions a "permanent ceasefire". That is a first.

During the 1980s a number of temporary ceasefires were announced, some with a 60-day limit.

In 1998 the armed separatists announced an "indefinite and unilateral" truce which led to secret talks with the conservative government of Jose Maria Aznar.

Those meetings failed and bomb attacks resumed in January 2000.

'Historic day'

Some experts believe this latest Eta declaration really could be the start of a peace process in the Basque region.

Charles Powell, a political analyst with Madrid's San Pablo University, says: "Eta have never announced a permanent ceasefire of this nature and of course that means that even if they don't like the way the peace process develops it would be very hard to go back."

PM Zapatero says he will take his time to decide on a response

So far, the response from most of Spain's political leaders has been optimistic but cautious.

Responding officially to the ceasefire, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said that after so many years of suffering, the road to peace in the Basque region would be long and difficult.

The prime minister says it is essential to tread this road with certainty, security and responsibility.

This caution was echoed by most of Spain's political leaders, who have called for caution and prudence until Eta delivers with actions, not just words.

Nevertheless, many believe this announcement is a turning point.

The president of the Basque region, Juan Jose Ibarretxe, said this was an historic day.

The timing of the statement does come as a surprise.

Earlier this year Mr Zapatero announced that the beginning of a peace process in the Basque region could be possible.

But that announcement was followed by a series of bomb attacks that seemed to put that idea to rest.

But Eta has not killed anyone in a bomb attack for nearly three years and some terrorism analysts say that the recent spate of non-fatal bombings was just to prove to Spain's government that Eta did exist and to give it a better bargaining position during a peace process.

Spent force?

Spain's government has maintained for about three years that Eta is at one of its weakest points - it is thought there may only be about 30 full-time Eta operatives left.

A key issue for Eta will be the release of its prisoners

Co-operation from the French authorities has played a very big role in Eta's decline - for several years suspects have been unable to treat France as a safe haven.

And of course there is popular opposition.

Millions of Spaniards have taken to the streets over the years, inside and outside the Basque region, to oppose the group's use of force.

There is also the issue of more than 700 Eta prisoners.

They have been putting pressure on the Eta leadership to get them out of jail.

The only way to do that is to negotiate with Spain's government and the pre-requisite for that has always been a definitive end to the violence.

The next steps are unclear. There is no road map for peace.

It is known that Eta wants to both bargain with the Spanish government and start a series of separate negotiations with Basque political groups.

But Mr Zapatero says he is going to take his time to decide what steps are to be taken in response to this ceasefire announcement.

Over the coming days, Mr Zapatero will be holding a round of meetings with Spain's political leaders, starting with the head of the opposition, Mariano Rajoy.