Blair returns to packed in-tray

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

If you believe some of the stories doing the rounds in Westminster, Tony Blair is back from Barbados, reinvigorated and spoiling for a fight.

Back from holiday and raring to go?

He is, it is being suggested, ready to finally stand up to Gordon Brown, sack Home Secretary Charles Clarke, slash and burn his way through the cabinet and impose his radical will on government policy like never before to secure his legacy.

Then, after lunch....

Well, that is one scenario which has been encouraged by an article from his biographer Anthony Seldon. Others, however, have an entirely different take.

Yes, the prime minister may well want to do some, or even all of that, but it is too late. He is, they remind each other, on the way out - the only argument is over when.

Labour backbenchers, including the 2005 intake, are already looking beyond Blair to prime minister Brown and are making their career calculations accordingly.

Other side

And for everyone who claims the prime minister has new opportunities as a result of the death of the Euro constitution, the universally-praised way he responded to the London bombings and his London Olympics triumph, there are those who fill in the other side of the ledger.

Anti-terror laws top agenda

Iraq is a mess, his anti-terror measures have faced serious opposition, even confusion, he is facing fresh opposition to his public service reforms and he has made himself a lame duck premier.

What is certainly true amongst all this spin and counter-spin is that Tony Blair has returned from his controversial summer break with a packed in-tray.

And if he wants to make an immediate impact, he doesn't have much time. Despite his election cry of "I'm back", he will swiftly be off on his travels again - China, India and New York alone over the next two weeks or so.

Top of his pile is probably hardening up plans for anti-terror legislation which was foreshadowed during the summer break and caused some controversy.

The prime minister will also return to his central theme on anti-social behaviour later in the week in an attempt to put more impetus behind existing measures and head off the backlash over all-day drinking.

Conference speech

Iraq continues to trouble the prime minister. The insurgency continues and the agreement of the highly-controversial constitution may actually make matters worse.

Brown waiting in wings

Then there is the EU-China trade row which Mr Blair, as EU President, will step into when he visits Beijing next week.

The trip will see the prime minister again placing the challenges of globalisation and climate change at the top of the EU's agenda.

It is also likely Mr Blair will want to look forward to what will be an important party conference performance at the end of September.

All eyes will be on his speech for any sign of when he may be considering stepping down and how he believes he will secure his legacy before then.

And as for the talk of sacking the Home Secretary, taking on Gordon Brown and reshaping his entire cabinet - that report has been dismissed by the prime minister's official spokesman as "just plain wrong".