Will Brown really slash jobs?

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent

A bleak reading of Gordon Brown's spending review suggests we are about to witness lines of ex-civil servants queuing up outside job centres around the country.

Civil servants could face dole queue

The public services union has already threatened to strike in support of its members in Whitehall.

Labour's John McDonnell, chairman of the union's parliamentary group said: "A hundred thousand job cuts is not to be taken lightly.

"Parliamentary colleagues have grave concerns for their own constituencies as these measures begin to impact upon local services and employment rates."

And Mr Brown has come out fighting, insisting he is not about to be blown off course by such threats, and stating he will go ahead with the massive job cuts regardless.

Tax rises

Yet in and around the House of Commons in the aftermath of the statement it was hard to find too many Labour MPs genuinely up in arms over this apparent attempt to create mass unemployment in the civil service.

Cable doesn't believe it

Many simply believe that this is a long overdue efficiency drive and, in any case, will not spark an upsurge of indignation from most of their voters.

But there is another undercurrent. The belief that the chancellor either can not, will not or never intended to go through with it.

The chancellor is having none of it of course, insisting he has no option if he is to increase spending on the public services.

And, he hints darkly, would these moaners rather have instant tax rises or deferred tax rises through extra borrowing instead.

But, as one decidedly un-indignant senior Labour MP declared: "Well, it will get us through to the next election and steal the Tories thunder. But it will never happen."

Never materialise

Liberal Democrat spokesman Vince Cable almost certainly spoke for more than just his own MPs when he said: "I simply do not believe a lot of these things (savings measures) are going to happen."

Brown insists he will press ahead

Former Tory minister Michael Fallon warned: "Efficiency savings are always easier to announce than they are to secure".

And he suggested the chancellor would have to end up increasing taxes after the next election when his savings failed to materialise.

So, why do so many MPs believe these cuts will never materialise.

Firstly there are those who claim Mr Brown can not achieve his aim.

They point out that just about every government since the war has pledged to cut waste and increase efficiency, yet Whitehall has grown relentlessly.

And if it was that easy to raise billions for extra spending, others would most certainly have done it by now.

Tough decisions

Then there are those who believe he will not do it because he will meet such fierce resistance from the unions and the civil service itself that it just won't be worth the trouble.

Then there are the ultra-cynics who believe he has no intention of going through with it but has simply engaged in some good, tough pre-election politics.

They say he has shot the Tory fox, apparently squared the tax-spend circle and lived up to his reputation as a man ready to take the tough decisions needed to keep the economy on the straight and narrow.

Once he has helped win the next election with this "trick" he will then turn his attention to what he really plans to do to finance his spending programme, they say.

And it is almost certainly the case that we won't know who is right until well after that general election.