Alastair Campbell's departure

It was a non-denial denial.

Downing Street responded to the BBC breaking the news that Alastair Campbell is planning to leave his job in the next few months by claiming it was "wishful thinking" and "gossip rather than substance." But they did not straightforwardly say it was untrue.

Since Alastair Campbell was there at the creation of New Labour his loss will mark a profound change for the party and the government. But in what direction?

One opinion poll suggested about half the electorate do not believe a single word the Prime Minister says.

Gavin Esler was joined by Rhodri Morgan the First Minister of Wales and the Labour MP Eric Joyce.

Click here to watch the discussion

GAVIN ESLER:
Do you think Alastair Campbell become a liability?

RHODRI MORGAN AM:
(First Minister of Wales)
No, I don't think so. But I think it is possible that he is burned out. In fact, it would be a miracle if after nine years of high pressure work, so close to the Leader of the Opposition for three and then the Prime Minister for six years, a miracle if he's not burned out by now - I've never known anyone else do this kind of job for nine years.

ESLER:
Eric Joyce, its true its a very high pressure job, but when half the people tell the pollsters that they don't believe a single word the Prime Minister says, the buck has to stop either with the Prime Minister or with Alaistair Campbell doesn't it?

ERIC JOYCE MP:
(Labour)
Well no, I don't think so. Alaistair Campbell clearly remains - whatever's being said today - remains an enormous asset both to the Labour Party and to the Government. I must say that I woke up this morning, the first thing I heard on the news was about Alastair Campbell, the speculation about Alaistair Campbell, its the top of Newsnight, one of the premier programmes in news on the television. It does seem that the BBC is just a tiny bit obsessed with the personality, putting it as it is, in front of all sorts of other important issues.

ESLER:
Look at the way in which this has happened. The BBC is told by somebody in Downing Street "he's going to go". Then the next day, what happens is it is "wishful thinking" and "gossip rather than substance". Normal people don't behave like this.

JOYCE:
Well maybe so, I don't know how the BBC got story in the first place. But it is essentially soap opera. There's all these very important issues of the day, many of which you'll cover anyway, but this is the top of the news. It seems rather odd that the BBC should choose to elevate what is essentially a soap opera issue, important though Alaistair Campbell is, to the top of the news in the way it has.

ESLER:
Rhodri Morgan, is this really a soap opera, him going? Is that how it is going to be seen throughout the Labour Party?

MORGAN:
Like Eric, I actually don't know whether he really is going or whether he was going anyway and then this has been elevated into news when it is not news. I don't know. I think what is important is that he is a key member of the Praetorian Guard. Equal to Peter Mandelson, Mandelson's out of the Cabinet, Milburn and Byers are out of the Cabinet, Anji Hunter has gone. If Alastair Campbell goes, really only Jonathan Powell perhaps of the original Praetorian Guard, will still be there whenever Alaistair actually finally does cut his links. And we don't know that that is true. But assuming the first story is true, not the second denial, that could happen by September. It leaves Tony Blair really with two years to build up a new Praetorian Guard. But each member of the Praetorian Guard is different. I've never been convinced that Alastair Campbell is New Labour. He's certainly intensely loyal, we saw that, even to people like Robert Maxwell, he's intensely loyal to Tony Blair and will never do anything to harm Tony Blair. If Tony Blair asked him to say on, I guess he would probably stay on. I think there is probably a mutual recognition that after nine years, I mean it is just impossible to carry on that kind of job through the next election.

ESLER:
Eric Joyce, is the problem, the problem in the polls and so on, problems of substance which you've touched on, are they matters of - as we heard in the film there - perhaps of policies, policies which are unpopular in the party and the country or a matter of presentation?

JOYCE:
Well, I think essentially it is a matter of presentation. But we are going through a difficult phase. There is no doubt about that. There is a great deal of discussion got to take place with the public at large, with party members at large with the trade unions. And there is perhaps a realignment of some relationships that have got to take place, sure. These things are dynamic. People turn over in any organisation Alastair Campbell is an enormous asset. Clearly, no-one is irreplaceable.

ESLER:
But if a lot of the problems are presentational, he is the director of communications, he can't be that much of an asset.

JOYCE:
These things are evolutionary to a certain extent. Certainly at the moment there is a great focus on Alastair Campbell as a personality. I think that is a pity. He's, I thin kits fair to say, done what he can to remove himself from the foreground and the press have pretty relentlessly pursued him.

ESLER:
Rhodri Morgan, on this question of policies and presentation, where do you stand on that?

MORGAN:
I think it would be healthy if there was a new direction. But I think there is a particular problem of Alastair Campbell and the BBC. Certain parts of the BBC, the Today programme, maybe even Newsnight I don't know, there's a bit of the, what I call the "Radio Advarp" - which is Pravda in reverse, about the BBC or the Today Programme and Newsnight maybe, of thinking "well, Alastair Campbell and New Labour and Tony Blair have been incredibly successful, they've crushed all opposition, so the BBC needs to become the opposition." You see it when my good friend John Humphreys is on the Today programme, Jeremy Paxman on your programme. Why? Because they think that they have to fill the gap left by the lack of effective opposition in parliament. So they want to become the opposition. That is unhealthy. Really it is a reflection of the incredible success that Tony Blair and Alastair Campbell have had. But it is still unhealthy. Its a very unfortunate, odd triangle. No effective opposition, New Labour too dominant, Alastair Campbell too dominant, BBC thinks that its got to be Pravda in reverse.

ESLER:
Let me got back to the start of your answer, as somebody who doesn't wake up every morning thinking about Alaistair Campbell, let me ask you, when you suggested a new direction might be necessary in terms of policies, what new direction?

MORGAN:
I'm not saying about policies particularly. I'm just thinking that if in the run-up to the next general election something into some kind of a fresh start, as the Praetorian Guard may have all gone really by September, October. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Governments have to refresh themselves. I'm sure Tony Blair is well capable of doing that. He's got two years to do it. And the prize at the end of it of three successive election victories, is an absolutely fantastic achievement, if he achieves it. But he will have to achieve it if what you call¿ with a new team, a new team shorn of no Mandelson, no Byers, no Milburn and¿ no Campbell, no Anji Hunter. A lot of the people that really were the New Labour project team, although as I say never convinced that Alastair Campbell was New Labour in policy, but he'll do what his master's voice tells him to do. But he will have to have a new team, but the new team can deliver victory just as much as the old team. If the old team is tired you have to have a new team.

ESLER:
The one thing you were quoted as saying today is that you had envisaged, Labour had envisaged the five to ten year stint before losing office in Westminster or Cardiff. It could seem a bit sooner. People have been looking at the opinion polls. I mean are you a bit worried about that?

MORGAN:
Absolutely. But, really, at a mid-term point like this, on any previous occasion of any previous government, Tory or Labour, we would always be 10% or 20% points behind, if it was Labour. Because the press is overwhelmingly anti-Labour. But Tony Blair and Campbell have managed to neutralise a lot of that. If the Tories were in power, they'd be 10% points behind in a mid-term slump. We're not 10% points behind, we are worried about only being 2% points ahead. That's the measure that you have got to give to Blair, Brown, Campbell as the people who have managed to put Labour into the position of not invincibility, nobody is in invincible in a democracy, but nevertheless, a position of strength that Labour has never know in 100 years of its history.

ESLER:
Eric Joyce, just on that final point.

JOYCE:
I think at root, New Labour is about coping with change, if anything. Ultimately, if it happens, that means you change your personalities too.

ESLER:
Okay, thank you very much.

This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.