Will reverence for John Paul II in death have a lasting effect?
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As cardinals gather in Rome to elect a new pope, the Catholic Church in Britain is riding a wave as lapsed members return to the fold, inspired by John Paul II's legacy. But is this the start of a renaissance, or merely a blip on a downward curve?
When Father Tom Connolly, the parish priest of St Kentigern's in Manchester counted the collection last Sunday, he found it was £180 up on the usual takings, a 25% increase. The four masses of the day had drawn capacity congregations, including faces not seen in church for years.
"The Pope's death, and the manner of his dying, have brought people to their senses," he explains. "It reminds them of their laziness. They never lost their faith, just put it on the backburner."
Catholic churches throughout Britain have seen the same surge in attendance. It is certainly good for morale, and finances too. But can it do anything to save a Church in serious long-term decline? Will it help RCUK recoup its losses?
The statistics are sobering. Weekly attendance at mass throughout England and Wales is less than half what it was at its peak in the 1960s while the number of priests has fallen by a quarter.
The number of Catholics, that is all those who have been baptised, has remained fairly steady however, slipping from 8.7% of the population in 1981 to 8.1% in 2001. So Catholics are still getting their children christened, they are just not going to church very much or becoming priests.
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Something is happening here, not of man but of God
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Meanwhile, in Scotland, attendance at mass declined 19% between 1994 and 2002, according to the statisticians Christian Research, which it calculates is equivalent to the loss of one congregation per week throughout the period.
It seems the loss of their flock may have affected priests' confidence in official teaching too. An extensive 2003 poll suggested that only 39% of priests in England and Wales support the ban on contraception. Only half agreed with Rome's stance on remarriage.
The picture is not all gloom however, says the Rt Rev Thomas McMahon, the Bishop of Brentwood, in Essex. "As Rome reminds us when we complain: we have the third highest ratio of priests to people in the world, behind Ireland and Malta."
Catholics have also suffered less than other denominations in Britain, and have the highest weekly attendance of any church.
Attendances have halved since the 1960s
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The decline of British Catholicism is undeniable though, and in the three-and-a-half years since Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, the Archbishop of Westminster, announced that Christianity in Britain was "almost vanquished" the downward trend has continued.
The Church has not taken its decline lying down. Some parishes in Brentwood, for example, have taken a leaf out of the Jehovah's Witnesses' Bible, and volunteers are going door-knocking.
They only visit willing lapsed Catholics, after the priest has sent an epistle warning them of a call. The visitors tell people about what is going on in the parish and invite them to join in. "It has borne good fruit," says Bishop Thomas.
Another re-evangelism scheme popular throughout Britain is the US programme "Landings" - so called because it offers returning Catholics "a safe spot to touch down". It is a meeting where the prodigals mix with active Catholics to talk things through and get to know people until they are ready to rejoin the Church proper.
None of this though has brought people back into the church like the death of the Pope. But is John Paul's parting gift a genuine change in the fortunes of the British Church, or merely a blip on the downward curve?
Millions turned out for John Paul II's funeral
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It is certainly unlikely to win many new converts to Catholicism. A number of commentators have been talking about Catholicism winning back Britain, John Paul being the Pope of our hearts. But there is a great distance between getting caught up in the emotion of a celebrity death and subscribing to all the doctrines and lifestyle commitments that are part of actual conversion.
Still there are high hopes in the Church that the papal passing may have a lasting impact on the multitude of "backburner" Catholics who have visited Mother Church in recent weeks.
"I think they will have a good experience and find that the Church meets their deepest needs," says Bishop Thomas.
Father Tom Connolly agrees. "We've got to regain the confidence to go out and get, to hold our heads high as Catholics. The display of respect for the late Pope can't help but do that. Something is happening here, not of man but of God."
It seems unlikely that this respect will solve any of the Church's most deeply rooted problems, but there may quite possibly be a measurable improvement in attendance for a while.
If so, it seems ironic that the one thing in the Pope's life that rallied British Catholics was its end. But then working wonders from beyond the grave is an idea that Catholics are quite comfortable with.