North West election round-up

By David Woodthorpe
Political Editor, North West

Congestion charging is a keen issue in Greater Manchester

North West England used to be a region where Labour's grip was so tight, the joke was that, come election times, votes were weighed not counted.

How times have changed.

The Conservatives now control twice as many councils as Labour, which has been pushed back to its remaining redoubts.

In theory, the May 2008 elections should see the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats make further progress. After all, Labour's recent national opinion poll ratings range from dismal to utter despair.

Yet dramatic progress is not guaranteed. Most councillors up for election this year were elected in 2004 - a bad year for Labour - so Gordon Brown's party starts from a low base, which makes further losses less likely.

School issues

The Conservatives however, are hoping to exploit what they say is anger over the prospect of congestion charging in Greater Manchester, in order to take overall control of Bury and become the largest party in Bolton.

The Tories also predict seizing Barrow-in-Furness, where boundary changes mean that there is an all-out election.

One of the key fights will be for control of Liverpool

Here, the battle lines are confused by a number of independents including the "Our Schools Are Not For Sale" group, campaigning on a single issue against proposals for an academy replacing three existing secondary schools.

Labour and Conservative candidates back the Academy plan.

One of the key fights on the night will be for control of Liverpool.

The local Labour Party is determined to unseat the Liberal Democrats, who have controlled the authority for nearly 10 years.

The council was branded the worst in the country by the Audit Commission while internal Lib Dem splits, combined with the troubled preparation of the Capital of Culture year, put the party on the back foot.

Hung council?

Council Leader Warren Bradley will be desperate to hang on and if he does the Lib Dems will be jubilant.

A Labour win would be stunning, but it requires a gain of about 11 seats, which is a very tall order.

However Liverpool may well end the night with a hung council.

The Liberal Democrats are aiming to take Oldham from Labour and take outright control of Warrington, but another internal split this time in Rochdale makes the party's two-seat majority there look fragile.

David Cameron toured the North West after the local elections last year

District council elections in Cheshire have been abolished this year as all the councils and the county face replacement by the two new unitary authorities of Cheshire East - a Conservative shoe-in - and Cheshire West and the City of Chester - which looks too close to call.

In Blackburn-with-Darwen Labour will be hoping to take the two seats they need to regain control of a council they lost for the first time in a political generation last year.

A coalition of parties led by the Conservatives now runs the town hall, but the For Darwen independents may well make further gains at Labour's expense.

A loss of a single seat in Rossendale or Hyndburn would see the Conservatives lose control there.

The Liberal Democrats will be hoping to retain control of Pendle, but of the 15 seats up for election the party is defending 10, which could make it vulnerable.

In 2007, Conservative leader David Cameron toured the North West the day after the local elections, having swept to power in four more councils in the region.

A repeat is unlikely, but not impossible, if the national opinion polls are correct.